Determinants of hospital outcomes for patients with COVID-19 in the University of Pennsylvania Health System.

There is growing evidence that racial and ethnic minorities bear a disproportionate burden from COVID-19. Temporal changes in the pandemic epidemiology and diversity in the clinical course require careful study to identify determinants of poor outcomes. We analyzed 6255 hospitalized individuals with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from one of 5 hospitals in the University of Pennsylvania Health System between March 2020 and March 2021, using electronic health records to assess risk factors and outcomes through 8 weeks post-admission. Discharge, readmission and mortality outcomes were analyzed in a multi-state model with multivariable Cox models for each transition. Mortality varied markedly over time, with cumulative incidence (95% CI) 30 days post-admission of 19.1% (16.9, 21.3) in March-April 2020, 5.7% (4.2, 7.5) in July-October 2020 and 10.5% (9.1,12.0) in January-March 2021; 26% of deaths occurred after discharge. Average age (SD) at admission varied from 62.7 (17.6) to 54.8 (19.9) to 60.5 (18.1); mechanical ventilation use declined from 21.3% to 9-11%. Compared to Caucasian, Black race was associated with more severe disease at admission, higher rates of co-morbidities and residing in a low-income zip code. Between-race risk differences in mortality risk diminished in multivariable models; while admitting hospital, increasing age, admission early in the pandemic, and severe disease and low blood pressure at admission were associated with increased mortality hazard. Hispanic ethnicity was associated with fewer baseline co-morbidities and lower mortality hazard (0.57, 95% CI: 0.37, .087). Multi-state modeling allows for a unified framework to analyze multiple outcomes throughout the disease course. Morbidity and mortality for hospitalized COVID-19 patients varied over time but post-discharge mortality remained non-trivial. Black race was associated with more risk factors for morbidity and with treatment at hospitals with lower mortality. Multivariable models suggest there are not between-race differences in outcomes. Future work is needed to better understand the identified between-hospital differences in mortality.

A randomized controlled study of convalescent plasma for individuals hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia.

BackgroundAntibody-based strategies for COVID-19 have shown promise in prevention and treatment of early disease. COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) has been widely used but results from randomized trials supporting its benefit in hospitalized patients with pneumonia are limited. Here, we assess the efficacy of CCP in severely ill, hospitalized adults with COVID-19 pneumonia.MethodsWe performed a randomized control trial (PennCCP2), with 80 adults hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia, comparing up to 2 units of locally sourced CCP plus standard care versus standard care alone. The primary efficacy endpoint was comparison of a clinical severity score. Key secondary outcomes include 14- and 28-day mortality, 14- and 28-day maximum 8-point WHO ordinal score (WHO8) score, duration of supplemental oxygenation or mechanical ventilation, respiratory SARS-CoV-2 RNA, and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.ResultsEighty hospitalized adults with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled at median day 6 of symptoms and day 1 of hospitalization; 60% were anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody seronegative. Participants had a median of 3 comorbidities, including risk factors for severe COVID-19 and immunosuppression. CCP treatment was safe and conferred significant benefit by clinical severity score (median [MED] and interquartile range [IQR] 10 [5.5-30] vs. 7 [2.75-12.25], P = 0.037) and 28-day mortality (n = 10, 26% vs. n = 2, 5%; P = 0.013). All other prespecified outcome measures showed weak evidence toward benefit of CCP.ConclusionTwo units of locally sourced CCP administered early in hospitalization to majority seronegative participants conferred a significant benefit in clinical severity score and 28-day mortality. Results suggest CCP may benefit select populations, especially those with comorbidities who are treated early.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT04397757.FundingUniversity of Pennsylvania.